The EUROS Workpackage Uncertainty propagation in a nutshell
The forces acting on a wind turbine are highly irregular. For example, wind and temperature can vary a lot throughout the day. The impact of these forces on the life time of the turbine are important to assess on beforehand.
We can consider two types of uncertainties. The first type is the uncertainty described above: wind, waves, temperature, and other environmental uncertainties. Although we can predict these uncertainties up to a certain level, we cannot influence them: weather conditions will always be irregular.
On contrary, if we model our wind turbine using some computer software, we make assumptions and simplifications. Simply said, we cannot take all things influencing the turbine into account because they are too complex or simply because we do not know them. These type of uncertainties can be influenced: if we take more physical conditions into account, the uncertainty in our model will be reduced. However, this will cost time and money.
Combining both environmental uncertainties and uncertainties in the computer program is the key aspect of this work package. Improvements are made upon existing (naive) approaches, such that both the uncertainty can be quantified and its influence can be assessed.
Journal of Computational Physics, 332 , pp. 418–445, 2017.
Uncertainty quantification for wind energy applications Technical Report
Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (SC-1701), 2017.