@article{6cb62b5438b340ebb459faf9f11408da,
title = {Decision support for offshore asset construction using expert judgments for supply disruptions risk},
author = {George Leontaris and Oswaldo {Morales Napoles} and Ashish Dewan and Rogier Wolfert},
doi = {10.1016/j.autcon.2019.102903},
issn = {0926-5805},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
journal = {Automation in Construction},
volume = {107},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Offshore asset construction is a complex and costly process that is subject to various uncertainties within the entire supply chain. Hence, both the construction management optimization and the reduction of deployment expenditures should be supported by automated decision support models which include proper representations of predominant uncertainties. One of these is the supply disruption risk that is often ignored in existing models. Therefore, this article proposes a methodology to properly take this construction risk into account. An algorithm to model this risk was developed and a study was conducted to obtain the required probability distributions of disruption delays using real data and expert judgments for an offshore wind farm construction application. The simulation of a realistic test case with an appropriately modified stochastic simulation tool showed that it is important to consider this risk in order to make optimal decisions for different offshore wind farm construction strategies.},
note = {Accepted Author Manuscript},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}

@article{LEONTARIS2018b,
title = {ANDURIL — A MATLAB toolbox for ANalysis and Decisions with UnceRtaInty: Learning from expert judgments},
author = {Georgios Leontaris and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles},
url = {http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d8210946-8d27-4e85-b395-a479f7addd9d},
doi = {10.1016/j.softx.2018.07.001},
issn = {2352-7110},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-00-00},
journal = {SoftwareX},
volume = {7},
pages = {313–317},
abstract = {The Classical model (or Cooke’s model) for elicitation and combination of expert judgments has been used in science and engineering since at least the early 1990’s. The most widely used program for applications of this model is EXCALIBUR. However, its code is not available for practitioners, which limits the accessibility and potential of the method. In this paper, we discuss a MATLAB toolbox (ANDURIL11In order to avoid confusion of the minority of people, who are not familiar with the universe of Lord of the Rings by J.R.R. Tolkien, the authors would like to clarify the inspiration for the name of the developed Matlab toolbox. Andúril was the name of the sword of Aragorn, the son of Arathorn, which was reforged from the shards of Narsil (the sword that was used by Isildur to cut the One Ring from Sauron’s hand). Excalibur is also the name of the legendary sword of King Arthur. Similarly to the sword, the source code of EXCALIBUR software remained accessible only to a few worthy ones. Therefore, the researchers and practitioners could only admire and use the software without being able to further investigate and explore developments of the method. To change this, the existing software had to be “broken to pieces” and then “reforged”. Naturally, the name of the resulting new open-source Matlab toolbox is ANDURIL. Hopefully, this will help in bringing peace to troubled researchers and practitioners of Cooke’s classical model. ) intended to fill in this gap. The software has been tested in a recent real-life application reproducing the results of EXCALIBUR. We discuss different advantages for the users from having the developed source code available for practice.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}

@article{LEONTARIS2016a,
title = {Probabilistic scheduling of offshore operations using copula based environmental time series – An application for cable installation management for offshore wind farms},
author = {Georgios Leontaris and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles and A. R. M. Wolfert},
url = {http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f361f293-66a4-426f-9bf6-7610361fc8d1},
doi = {10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.08.029},
issn = {0029-8018},
year = {2016},
date = {2016-00-00},
journal = {Ocean Engineering},
volume = {125},
number = {Supplement C},
pages = {328–341},
abstract = {Abstract There are numerous uncertainties that impact offshore operations. However, environmental uncertainties concerning variables such as wave height and wind speed are crucial because these may affect installation and maintenance operations with potential delays and financial consequences. In order to include these uncertainties into the duration estimation, adequate tools should be developed to simulate an installation scenario for a large number of historical environmental data. Data regarding environmental time series are usually scarce and limited, therefore they should be modelled. Since the environmental variables are in reality dependent, we propose a probabilistic method for their construction using copulas. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method compared to the cases where observed or independently constructed environmental time series are used, a realistic cable installation scenario for an offshore wind farm was simulated. It was found that the proposed method should be followed to acquire more reliable and accurate estimation of the installation's duration.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}