Extended Weather Forecasts – What This Project Is About?
Meteorological expertise is embodied in the current-day (wind) energy sector and plays a key role for further cost-reductions and future implementation. It is encountered, for example, in site assessment (where to install my turbines), wake loss and replenishment (how far apart), power forecasts (when to charge my car), and load assessment studies (will my turbines last).
Because it is expensive and burdensome to measure all relevant meteorological parameters on a dense
enough grid, all these tasks heavily rely on meteorological models, ranging from relatively simplistic extrapolation methods to highly complex atmospheric circulation models. These models are all abstractions of reality, and therefore they introduce uncertainty in the estimated wind resource, wake losses, power output and turbine loads.
This project aims to give insight in, and to reduce, these uncertainties. In the first stage, unique observations are used for an in-depth analysis of the meteorological climate at the North Sea. Subsequently, atmospheric circulation models are compared and evaluated, and the uncertainty associated with these models is characterized. Finally, this should enable better integration of meteorological rigor in wind industry practices.